Outlook 2025: Raphie Hayat (a.s.r. asset management)
By Raphie Hayat, Investment strategist, a.s.r. asset management
What is the economic outlook for the rest of 2025?
‘If I were to translate the economic outlook into a weather forecast, it would be something like: “Foggy, with a chance of clearing up. But slippery, so there’s also a chance you’ll fall flat on your face.” Because we are in a macroeconomic environment that is a lot more uncertain than it was six months ago. This is mainly due to the policy uncertainty surrounding Trump's trade tariffs, but also to geopolitical flashpoints. Economic growth expectations are therefore moderate compared to the beginning of this year, although no recessions are expected yet.
Where are the biggest opportunities and threats for investors?
‘We tend to see opportunities and threats as two separate things, but they are often two sides of the same coin. If you think a threat will not fully materialise, you can see it as an opportunity, and vice versa. One of the threats is that the trade war between the US and China will flare up again after the recent 90-day pause. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine could also escalate again. This may not have a direct impact on the real economy, but it could affect gas and oil prices, for example. Regardless of this, energy prices are an important wild card. If OPEC reduces production again, for example, this will be positive for energy prices but a negative shock for the economy. The challenge for investors is to assess the extent to which financial markets are sufficiently pricing in the current threats. Fortunately, there is a solution if you really don't know. Diversify well and take a long-term view.
Energy prices are an important wild card.