As the Committee fumbled around for consensus, Powell offered insight, saying, "For some part of the Committee, it's time to maybe take a step back and see whether there really are downside risks to the labor market, or see whether, in fact, the stronger growth that we're seeing is real."

Indeed, the U.S. economy is at a macro crossroads. Job growth shows a spluttering economy, with the three-month moving average of payroll job growth at just 29k through August. Meanwhile, real GDP growth is tracking at 3.9% for Q3, driven by tech spending. Which indicator should we rely upon to gauge what might happen next?

Historically, among the 22 quarters with similar 'mixed signals', none experienced a subsequent sustained expansion- unless the economy was emerging from a recession. In that sense, labor data is a more reliable signal than GDP. If so, is the FOMC fumbling the ball on the economy?