PIMCO: FOMC and SEP
By: Tiffany Wilding, Economist, PIMCO
What is happening: Kevin Warsh, Chair of the Federal Reserve, will lead his first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting on June 16–17, 2026 and the Fed will release Summary of Economic Projections (SEP).
What does it mean: The press conference and SEP will be his first opportunity to put his stamp on Fed communications.
Warsh confirmed he will hold a press conference at the June meeting, though it remains an open question whether he continues the every-meeting cadence. A move to quarterly pressers, which would be a reversion to pre-2019 practice, is a plausible eventual outcome, though June is likely too early to pivot. We expect a hawkish shift in the SEP — a couple of 2026 dots showing hikes by year-end, with the median clustered around no change. The key risk to watch is a disconnect between a hawkish-drifting committee and a chair whose own instincts on inflation appear more constructive and, separately, the possibility that Warsh declines to submit dots at all, consistent with his long-standing criticism of forward guidance.
What’s next: We expect the policy rate to remain on hold at 3.50–3.75%. Chair Warsh has spoken of a desire to shrink the balance sheet, but this meeting is too early for any change in policy, and we would expect him to stay guarded on the topic in the press conference — likely suggesting only a need for the Fed to reduce its footprint.