Payden & Rygel: Fed on track to hike rates in December
By Jeffrey Cleveland, Chief Economist at Payden & Rygel
All signs point to a firming in the labor market in the last 3 months. After revisions to prior months and October’s strong than expected number, the US is now adding jobs at a 120-130k monthly clip, more than enough to keep downward pressure on the unemployment rate.
We think it’s possible the unemployment rate could tick below 4%, surprising virtually everyone. Wage growth also picking up a bit month to month. All told, since the October FOMC meeting, all key data repots have come in stronger than expected—GDP strong, core inflation sticky, jobs strong enough to push down the unemployment rate—leaving the Fed on track to hike rates again in December.